Related Links | Frequently Asked Questions | Community Feedback | Downloads | Sitemap
CCMC Home | CCMC Stakeholders | Our Team | Publications | Meetings and Workshops | Concept of Operations
Models At A Glance | ModelWeb Catalog and Archive
Request Procedures | Generate Input Data Files & Parameters | Movies on Request | About the Run Process | Publications Policy
Search run database | Request run output | Special events | Kameleon Software | Space Weather Explorer | Publications policy
Instant Model Run
Forecasting Support tools | iSWA | DONKI | Mission Support | Experimental Real Time Simulations | Operational Geospace Model Validations
Intl Forum | GEM Challenge | CEDAR ETI Challenge | GEM-CEDAR Challenge | SHINE Challenge | CME Arrival Time Scoreboard | Flare Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | IMF Bz Scoreboard
Educational materials &activities | Space Weather REDI Initiative | SW REDI Bootcamp | Student Research Contest | Tutorial at CEDAR | Forecaster Tools
Missions near Earth/in Earth-orbit | MMS | Van Allen Probes | THEMIS | MESSENGER | STEREO | Spitzer | MAVEN | MSL | Dawn | Kepler | EPOXI | Juno | CASSINI | Voyager | New Horizons | Sounding Rockets | International
Research Community Support | CCMC Workshops | NASA Robotic Mission Operator Workshops | LWS Support | Exo-CCMC | DREAM2 Support | HELCATS Support
iSWA | DONKI | Kameleon | StereoCat | EEGGL | CME Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | FLR Scoreboard | SEA5

CCMC-SWPC Partnership for R2O Activities

related to the NASA/NOAA MOU Annex
Abstract submitted to Fall AGU 2018:
NOAA SWPC / CCMC Partnership to Validate Heliospheric Models
CCMC: M. Leila Mays, Peter Macneice, Aleksandre Taktakishvili,
NOAA/SWPC: Eric Adamson, Vic Pizzo, Doug Biesecker

In 2017 NOAA SWPC and CCMC started a new project under an annex to a memorandum of understanding between NASA and NOAA. The purpose of this project is to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and then compared to the current operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). The project is performed in close collaboration with model developers.

SWPC has selected a set of 33 historical events over the period of three years from 2012-2014. The overall two-year project consists of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set: (a) benchmark (current operational version) (b) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving WSA-ENLIL (c) single test simulation of a time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (d) single GONG map driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (e) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL. After each stage, the performance of the new simulation results will be compared to the benchmark (stage a) and to other previous stages. Here we present preliminary validation results for stages (a)-(c) that test the performance when using time-dependent backgrounds.

More information:


Disussions

Events
• NOAA has selected a set of 33 historical events and 36 CME input parameters have been provided (3 events contain 2 CMEs). They are available from CCMC's public DONKI database via an API in text or JSON format (if your are prompted for a password, please click the link again and it will bypass the login screen).
• Replication event subset for which input/ouput is available (text file)

Results for Parts 1 & 2 (Single and Time-dependent maps) - updated October 2018
 ⊳ Results: Year 1 interim report
 ⊳ Download time-series plots comparing the benchmark single map simulations with time-dependent map simulations for all events (8 MB).
 ⊳ Full download of evo *dat, evo graphics, bnd graphics, and contour plot graphics for all runs (multi-block simulations for all cases) (7.3 GB).

Test Simulations
Resolution Tests:
 ⊳ Repeat of one CME replication test swpc_test_070617_SH_2 with different grids.
Resolution: low (256x30x90), medium (512x60x180), high (1024x120x360)
Plot comparing temporal profiles at Earth for low, medium, and high resolution for three runs above.
 ⊳ Also see resolution comparison plots below.


Replication of event subset and resolution tests:
 ⊳ 2011_11_26 [ run files | evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots | 2.6/2.9e replication comparison plots | resolution comparison plot ]
 ⊳ 2012_01_23 [ run files | evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots | resolution comparison plot ]
 ⊳ 2012_03_13 [ run files | evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots | 2.6/2.9e replication comparison plots ]
 ⊳ 2012_06_14 [ run files | evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots | resolution comparison plot ]
 ⊳ 2012_08_31 [ run files | evo files & plots |2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots ]
 ⊳ 2012_09_28 [ evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots | resolution comparison plot ]
 ⊳ 2012_11_20 [ run files | evo files & plots | 2.6/2.9d replication comparison plots ]

Comparison of GONG "mrbqs" and "mrzqs" 2007-2017 (with metrics)
From Dusan:
 ⊳ Time-depdendent 24hr cadence gongb (mrbqs) time series plot at Earth (low resolution)
 ⊳ Time-depdendent 24hr cadence gongz (mrzqs) time series plot at Earth (low resolution) and (medium resolution)
Also see other plots in Dusan's calibration folder on helioweather.net

Example of single map vs. time dependent inner boundary simulations:
All using gongb mrbqs.To see graphics for each run linked below, click on "list of quicklook graphics links" on the run page

Bain et al. ApJ 2016:

Single Map: August 2010
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): July 2012
Time-dependent (2hr cadence): July 2012

Luhmann et al. SWJ 2017:

Single Map: August 2010
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): March 2013
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): March 2015
(also see July 2012 above)

Luhmann et al. SWJ 2018; Lee et al. GRL 2018 (submitted):

Time-dependent (2hr cadence): July 2017
Time-dependent (2hr cadence): Sep 2017

Other (mostly prelim):

Time-dependent (4hr cadence): June 2011
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): Nov 2011
Time-dependent (4hr cadence): Jan 2012
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): March 2012
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): May 2012
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): Sep 2014
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): Oct 2014
Time-dependent (24hr cadence): Dec 2014
Time-dependent (5hr cadence): May 2016

Replication tests:
CCMC v2.9d (version Dec 2017/Jan 2018) replication tests:
(repeat of tests below, added "b" label):
 ⊳ swpc_wsaenlil_bkg_20170720_0000 (18100) wcone_rep1b (tgz archive of run) and v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.
 ⊳ wsa_enlil_cme_09262017 (1446) wcone_rep2b (tgz archive of run) v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.
 ⊳ wsa_enlil_amb_09242017 wcone_rep3b (tgz archive of run) v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.

• From Dusan (September 2017):
 ⊳ (1) slides and notes on v2.9 and v2.6 replication tests.
 ⊳ (2) slides and notes on v2.9 and v2.6 replication tests.
CCMC v2.9d (version Sep 2017) replication tests:
 ⊳ swpc_wsaenlil_bkg_20170720_0000 (18100) wcone_rep1 (tgz archive of run) and v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.
 ⊳ wsa_enlil_cme_09262017 (1446) wcone_rep2 (tgz archive of run) v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.
 ⊳ wsa_enlil_amb_09242017 wcone_rep3 (tgz archive of run) v2.6 and v2.9d temporal profile comparison gifs.

CCMC v2.8f replication tests run table:

Event DateRun NumberKey WordsModel TypeModel Model Version Carrington Rotation StartCarrington Rotation EndStart DateEnd Date
Modeled Run swpc_test_070617_SH_1 test to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_cme_20170523_1800 HeliosphereENLIL2.8f00----
Modeled Run swpc_test_070617_SH_2 test to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_cme_20170523_1800HeliosphereENLIL2.8f21902190----
Modeled Run swpc_test_081517_SH_1 test to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_bkg_20170720_0000 HeliosphereENLIL2.8f00----
Modeled Run swpc_test_081517_SH_2 test2 to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_bkg_20170720_0000 HeliosphereENLIL2.8f00----
Modeled Run swpc_testhigh_070617_SH_4 test to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_cme_20170523_1800 and high resolution test HeliosphereENLIL2.8f21902190----
Modeled Run swpc_testlow_070617_SH_3 test to replicate SWPC run swpc_wsaenlil_cme_20170523_1800 and low resolution test HeliosphereENLIL2.8f21902190----

temporal profile comparison gifs:
swpc_test_070617_SH_2_gifs
swpc_test_081517_SH_1_gifs
swpc_test_081517_SH_2_gifs

Magnetogram input time cadence tests:
CR 2070 high resolution ambient simulations - 3 hr output (ENLIL v2.8f):

    Full rotation magnetograms:     Daily-update magnetograms:
      • WSAfr-GONG
      • WSAfr-MWO
      • WSAfr-NSO

        24 hr cadence input:
          • WSAdt-GONGb
          • WSAdt-GONGz
        6 hr cadence input: (Note: 1 hr cadence GONG maps are not availble for this CR)
          • WSAdt-GONGb
 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

| | Privacy, Security Notices

CCMC logo designed by artist Nana Bagdavadze