CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Team Leads: C. Verbeke (KU Leuven), M.L. Mays (CCMC), A. Taktakishvili (CCMC)
Scoreboard Leads: M.L. Mays, co-lead TBD
Communications: ccmc-cme-arrival@googlegroups.com (mailing list); slack: ccmc-collab.slack.com (email us to be invited to the slack discussion channels)

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Working Team Goals This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions.   ✳  Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction   ✳  Establish metrics agreed upon by the community   ✳  Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against Working Team Deliverables   ✳  Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.   ✳  Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.   ✳  Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.   ✳  Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction. By April 2017: Deliver the first two items for at least two time intervals and a handful of models, and make a start on the third item through collaboration with the Information Architecture for Interactive Archives (IAIA) working team. Collaborate with the working team: Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Toward Science Understanding and Operational Readiness. Summary of Working Team Tasks   ✳  Identify and discuss user needs   ✳  Discuss and select time intervals to study — expand as needed   ✳  Discuss and develop a set of relevant skill scores, and relate them to user needs   ✳  Identify sources of uncertainty   ✳  Produce model/technique output for intervals of study   ✳  Perform model assessments with selected metrics

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