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CME Arrival Time and Impact

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CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Team Leads: C. Verbeke (KU Leuven), M.L. Mays (CCMC), A. Taktakishvili (CCMC)
Scoreboard Leads: M.L. Mays, co-lead TBD
Communications: (mailing list); slack: (email us to be invited to the slack discussion channels)


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Working Team Goals
This team will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival time and impact for a set of historical events, with open communication with the community. The work is complementary to the CME Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time CME predictions and facilitate the validation of real-time predictions.
  ✳  Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction
  ✳  Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
  ✳  Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against

Working Team Deliverables
  ✳  Catalog of metrics and how they relate to user needs and validation needs.
  ✳  Model assessments with selected metrics for selected time intervals.
  ✳  Online database of model inputs, outputs, and observations.
  ✳  Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction.

By April 2017: Deliver the first two items for at least two time intervals and a handful of models, and make a start on the third item through collaboration with the Information Architecture for Interactive Archives (IAIA) working team. Collaborate with the working team: Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Toward Science Understanding and Operational Readiness.

Summary of Working Team Tasks
  ✳  Identify and discuss user needs
  ✳  Discuss and select time intervals to study — expand as needed
  ✳  Discuss and develop a set of relevant skill scores, and relate them to user needs
  ✳  Identify sources of uncertainty
  ✳  Produce model/technique output for intervals of study
  ✳  Perform model assessments with selected metrics

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