Groundbased magnetic perturbations dB/dt and Regional-K studies
About the study
To support the transition of space weather research models to operations, the CCMC is leading the effort to assess the ability of geospace models to forecast geomagnetic disturbances. The final Phase I Report on dB/dt Study have been submitted to NOAA/SWPC during the 2013 Space Weather Workshop. The results of the Phase II study on Regional-K index was presented and discussed at the GEM 2013 Summer Workshop.
This geospace model validation project is built upon the ground magnetic perturbations (delta-B) metrics study which is a part of the GEM Modeling Challenge (Pulkkinen et al., 2010, 2011; Rastaetter et al., 2011). The community-wide GEM Modeling Challenge was initiated in the summer of 2008 by the GGCM Metrics and Validation Focus Group. The CCMC is supporting the Challenge.
NOAA SWPC is planning to utilize the results of this geospace model validation project in their selection of operational geospace model. The time derivative of the horizontal magnetic field vector dB/dt and regional K index were identified as physical parameters of primary interest to NOAA SWPC customers.
Three global MHD magnetosphere models (SWMF v20110131, OpenGGCM v4.0, and CMIT-LFM-MIX vLTR-2_1_1) and two empirical delta-B models (Weimer and Weigel) participate in this activity.
Global MHD models were delivered to CCMC in January 2011. There was extensive communication with the model developers to ensure the correct installation and appropriate settings of the models. Model installation, robustness tests, necessary revisions performed by the code developers in response to CCMC feedback, and the final selection of model settings were accomplished by mid August 2011. Test simulations for all models were performed on 64 processors (or less) of the CCMC Beowulf Cluster. Simulation settings for all models were selected so that the simulations take no longer than twice the duration of the simulated event.
In support of the project the CCMC developed a tool that extracts the ground magnetic field perturbations from the global MHD model outputs (through integration over magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems).
The CCMC performed a series of sensitivity studies: sensitivity to methods of dB/dt calculations (e.g., the CCMC post-processing tool vs. run-time calculations implemented in SWMF); sensitivity to ground station locations sensitivity to model output frequency. The results of the studies were presented to code developers and discussed at special sessions of the GEM and mini-GEM Workshops.
One of the lessons learned from the GEM Modeling Challenge is that the results of metrics studies strongly depend on the selected metrics type (how the skill score characterizing the model performance is calculated). The CCMC has performed a series of test metrics studies on the outputs of the GEM Challenge simulations. Different approaches to skill score calculations were demonstrated and discussed. Per discussion with the model developers and NOAA SWPC it was agreed to implement the threshold-based model-data comparisons and calculate the skills such as probability of detection (POD), probability of false detection (POFD), and Heidke skill score [Lopez et al, 2007, Pulkkinen et al, 2010].
Six events that include the original four GEM Challenge events and two "surprise" events were selected for the final evaluation. All simulations were conducted at the CCMC. Full 3D results are available for on-line visualization. Calculated ground magnetic perturbations dB/dt and Regional-K for all models participating in the study together with observational data for each event and ground stations can be viewed using the online time-series plotting tool.
The final Phase I Report on dB/dt Study have been submitted to NOAA/SWPC during the 2013 Space Weather Workshop. The results of the Phase II study on Regional-K index was presented and discussed at the "GGCM Modeling Challenge" session at the GEM 2013 Summer Workshop. The final Phase I Report on dB/dt Study have been submitted to NOAA/SWPC during the 2013 Space Weather Workshop. The results of the Phase II study on Regional-K index was presented and discussed at the "GGCM Modeling Challenge" session at the GEM 2013 Summer Workshop
Selected List of Event Dates
- October 29th, 2003 06:00 UT - October 30th, 06:00 UT
- December 14, 2006 12:00 UT - December 16, 00:00 UT
- August 31, 2001 00:00 UT - September 1, 00:00 UT
- August 31, 2005 10:00 UT - September 1, 12:00 UT
- April 5, 2010 00:00 UT - April 6, 2010, 00:00 UT
- August 5, 2011 09:00 UT - August 6, 2011, 09:00 UT
List of Groundbased Stations used in dB/dt Study
Mid latitude stations:
WNG 54.12 95.0
NEW 54.85 304.68
OTT 55.63 355.31
High latitude stations:
PBQ 65.46 351.81 / SNK 66.40 356.10
ABK 66.06 114.66
YKC 68.93 299.36
- ABK is missing for the August 5, 2011 event.
- SNK is missing for all events except for April 5, 2010 and August 5, 2011
- for April 5, 2010 and August 5, 2011 event PBQ is replaced by SNK
- Small data gaps do exist for some of the stations for some of the events.
- Only stations marked in red and blue have been used for the current study.
View Study Results via the Time-series Plotting Tool
Groundbased magnetic perturbations dB/dt and Regional-K study results:
|Event||Magnetic perturbations on the ground dB/dt||Magnetic perturbations on the ground Delta B||Regional-K|
|2006/12/14 (doy 348) 12:00 UT - 12/16 00:00 UT||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC|
|2001/08/31 (doy 243) 00:00 UT - 09/01 00:00 UT||ABK FRD FRN FUR IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC|
|2005/08/31 (doy 243) 10:00 UT - 09/01 12:00 UT||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC|
|2003/10/29 (doy 302) 06:00 UT - 10/30 06:00 UT||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA MEA NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT PBQ WNG YKC|
|2010/04/05 (doy 095) 00:00 UT - 2010/04/06 00:00||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC|
|2011/08/05 (doy 217) 09:00 UT - 2011/08/05 09:00||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC||ABK FRD FRN FUR HRN IQA NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC||ABK NEW OTT SNK WNG YKC|
CCMC Model runs used in the studies
Groundbased magnetic perturbations dB/dt study
|Run Number||Key Words||Model||Model Version||Event Date||Start Time||End Time||Grid||Coordinate System for Input||Coordinate System for Output||Update Dipole Orientation with Time||Inflow Boundary (IB) RE||F10.7||Conductance Model|
|SWPC_SWMF_052811_3||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||SWMF||v20110131||August 30 2001||2001/08/30 19:00||2001/09/01 00:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||203.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_SWMF_030311_1a||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011, SSW16||SWMF||v20110131||October 29 2003||2003/10/29 01:00||2003/10/30 06:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||275.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_SWMF_052811_4||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||SWMF||v20110131||August 31 2005||2005/08/31 05:00||2005/09/01 12:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||86.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_SWMF_052811_2||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||SWMF||v20110131||December 14 2006||2006/12/14 07:00||2006/12/16 00:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||91.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_SWMF_022512_7||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011 April 05, 2010, SSW16||SWMF||v20110131||April 05, 2010||2010/04/04 19.00||2010/04/06 00:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||79.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_SWMF_022512_8||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011 August 05, 2011||SWMF||v20110131||August 05, 2011||2011/08/05 04:00||2011/08/06 09:00||1M cells||GSM||GSM||yes||32||113.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_031111_3||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||OpenGGCM||4.0||August 30 2001||2001/08/30 19:00||2001/09/01 00:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||203.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_031111_1||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||OpenGGCM||4.0||October 29 2003||2003/10/29 01:00||2003/10/30 06:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||275.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_031111_4||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||OpenGGCM||4.0||August 31 2005||2005/08/30 19:00||2005/09/01 12:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||86.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_031111_2||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||OpenGGCM||4.0||December 14 2006||2006/12/14 07:00||2006/12/16 00:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||275.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_022712_7||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2012||OpenGGCM||4.0||April 04, 2010||2010/04/04 21:00||2010/04/06 00:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||79.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_OpenGGCM_022712_8||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2012||OpenGGCM||4.0||August 05, 2011||2011/08/05 06:00||2011/08/06 12:00||3M cells||GSM||GSE||yes||30||113.00000||Sig-CTIM|
|SWPC_CMIT-LFM-MIX_031711_3||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||August 31 2001||2001/08/31 00:00||2001/09/01 00:00||53x48x64||GSM||SM||yes||30||192.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_CMIT-LFM-MIX_031711_1||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||October 29 2003||2003/10/29 01:00||2003/10/30 06:00||53x48x64||GSM||SM||yes||30||275.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_CMIT-LFM-MIX_031711_4||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||August 31 2005||2005/08/31 10:00||2005/09/01 12:00||53x48x64||GSM||SM||yes||30||86.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_CMIT-LFM-MIX_031711_2||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||December 14 2006||2006/12/14 12:00||2006/12/16 00:00||53x48x64||GSM||SM||yes||30||99.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_LFM_030512_7||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2012 April 5, 2010||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||April 04, 2010||2010/04/04 21:00||2010/04/06 00:00||53x48x64 cells||GSM||SM||yes||30||79.00000||auroral|
|SWPC_LFM-MIX-TIEGCM_030512_8||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011 August 5-6, 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_5||August 05, 2011||2011/08/05 06:00||2011/08/06 12:00||53x48x64 cells||GSM||SM||yes||--||113.00000||TIEGCM|
|SWPC_LFM_030512_8||dB/dt R2O Challenge 2011 August 5-6, 2011||LFM||LTR-2_1_1||August 05, 2011||2011/08/05 06:00||2011/08/06 12:00||53x48x64 cells||GSM||SM||yes||30||113.00000||auroral|
- Glocer, A., L. Rastätter, M. Kuznetsova, A. Pulkkinen, H. J. Singer, D. Weimer, D. Welling, M. Wiltberger, J. Raeder, R.S. Weigel, J. McCollough, S. Wing (2016), Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations, Space Weather, 14, 469–480, doi:10.1002/2016SW001387
- Rastaetter, L., G. Toth, M. M. Kuznetsova, and A. A. Pulkkinen (2014), CalcDeltaB: An efficient postprocessing tool to calculate ground-level magnetic perturbations from global magnetosphere simulations, Space Weather, 11, doi:10.1002/2014SW001083.
- A. Pulkkinen, L. Rastätter, M. Kuznetsova, H. Singer, C. Balch, D. Weimer, G. Toth, A. Ridley, T. Gombosi, M. Wiltberger, J. Raeder, and R. Weigel, Community-wide validation of geospace model ground magnetic field perturbation predictions to support model transition to operations, Space Weather Journal, vol.11, 369-385, doi:10.1002.swe.20056, 2013.
- A. Pulkkinen, M.Kuznetsova, A.Ridley, J.Raeder, A.Vapirev, D.Weimer, R.S.Weigel, M.Wiltberger, G.Milward, L.Rastaetter, M.Hesse, H.J.Singer, A.Chulaki, Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground magnetic field perturbations, Space Weather Journal, vol.9, SO2004, doi:10.1029/2010SW000600, 2011.
- A.Pulkkinen, L.Rastaetter, M.Kuznetsova, M.Hesse, A.Ridley, J.Raeder, H.J.Singer, A.Chulaki, Systematic evaluation of ground and geostationary magnetic field predictions generated by global magnetohydrodynamic models, JGR, vol.115, A03206, doi:10.1029/2009JA014537, 2010.
- R.Lopez, S.Hernandez, M.Wiltberger, C.-L.Huang., E.L.Kepko, H.Spence, C.C.Goodrich, J.G.Lyon, Predicting magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit during the Halloween storms, Space Weather, vol.5, S01005, doi:10.1029/2006SW00222, 2007
- Calculation of K index values from model magnetic perturbations [PowerPoint], Alex Glocer, GEM Summer Workshop, 2013
- Assessing Geospace Models for Use in Space Weather Operations [PDF], Howard Singer, Space Weather Workshop, 2012
- Sensitivity analyses for evaluation of ground magnetic field predictions [PDF], A.Pulkkinen, M.Kuznetsova, L.Rastaetter, 2011
- From GEM metrics studies to operational geospace model selection [PDF], A.Pulkkinen, M.Kuznetsova, M.Hesse, L.Rastaetter, A.Chulaki, J.S.Shim, GEM-CEDAR Workshop, 2011
- Geospace Model Project Goals [PDF], Howard Singer, Geospace Model Workshop, 2011
- Model Delivery to CCMC [PDF], Masha Kuznetsova, Geospace Model Workshop, 2011
- GEM 2008-2009 Challenge: ground magnetic field perturbations [PDF], A.Pulkkinen, M.Kuznetsova, A.Ridley, J. Raeder, D.Weimer, R.Weige, M.Wiltberger, G.Millward, L.Rastaetter, M.Hesse, H.J.Singer, A.Chulaki, AGU GEM mini-workshop, 2009
Download studies files
Delta-B, dB/dt and K-index study files are available for download on the CCMC website.
delta B files: Delta B study timeseries files Directory
dB/dt files: dB/dt study timeseries files Directory
K-index files: K-index study timeseries files Directory