Last Updated: 09/09/2022

CME Scoreboard

Go to CME Scoreboard Web App

About

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:

  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived

Using this system:

  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • See "CME Propagation Models" below for a list of registered methods and how to add your model for this effort.

Communication:

  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.

Resources:

CME Propagation Models

This is a subset of space weather forecasting CME propagation models (see below for references) that can be selected as the CME arrival time "Prediction Method" in the CME arrival time Scoreboard. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details. All prediction methods are welcome and all are encouraged to participate in this research activity.

CME shock arrival forecast

  • Anemomilos (Tobiska, 2013)
  • CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) (Liu et al., 2018)
  • Cone+HAF (Wang et al., 2018)
  • EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) (Paouris et al., 2017)
  • ELEvo (Ellipse Evolution) Model (Möstl et al., 2015)
  • ELEvoHI (Ellipse Evolution HI) Model (Rollett et al., 2016, Amerstorfer et al., 2018)
  • ESA (Empirical Shock Arrival) Model (Gopalswamy et al., 2001, 2005)
  • H3DMHD (HAFv.3 +3DMHD) Model (Wu et al., 2011)
  • HAFv.3 (Fry et al., 2001, 2003, Smith et al., 2009, McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2006)
  • SAP (Sheath-accumulating Propagation) (Takahashi and Shibata, 2017)
  • SARM (Shock ARrival Model) (Núñez et al., in preparation)
  • SPM (Feng and Zhao, 2006) and SPM2 (Zhao and Feng, 2014)
  • STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) (Dryer et al., 1984, 2004, Fry et al., 2001, McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2006)
  • WSA-ENLIL + Cone Model (Odstrcil et al., 2004)
  • Ballistic projection

CME arrival forecast

  • BHV (Bothmer Heseman Venzmer) Model (Bothmer and Schwenn, 1998)
  • DBEM (Drag Based Ensemble Model) (Dumbovic et al., 2018)
  • DBM (Drag Based Model) (Vršnak et al., 2013)
  • DBM + ESWF (Drag Based Model + Empirical Solar wind Forecast) (Vršnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2015)
  • COMESEP automated system (CGFT, Geomag24) (Crosby et al., 2012)
  • ECA (Empirical CME Arrival) Model (Gopalswamy et al., 2000, 2001)
  • Expansion Speed Prediction Model (Schwenn, 2005)
  • WSA-ENLIL + Cone Model (Odstrcil et al., 2004)
  • HelTomo (Jackson et al., 2010, 2011)
  • HI J-map technique (Sheeley, 2008; Rouillard et al., 2008; Davis et al., 2009, 2011)
  • TH (Tappin-Howard) Model (Tappin and Howard, 2009, Howard and Tappin, 2010)
  • Ballistic projection

References

  • Amerstorfer, T., Möstl, C., Hess, P., Temmer, M., Mays, M.L., Reiss, M.A., Lowrance, P., Bourdin, P.-A., 2018, Space Weather, 16, 784, doi:10.1029/2017SW001786
  • Bothmer, V. and Schwenn, R.: The structure and origin of magnetic clouds in the solar wind, Ann. Geophys., 16, 1-24, doi:10.1007/s00585-997-0001-x.
  • Crosby, N. B., A. Veronig, E. Robbrecht, B. Vrsnak, S. Vennerstrom, O. Malandraki, S. Dalla, L. Rodriguez, N. Srivastava, M. Hesse, D. Odstrcil and COMESEP Consortium: Forecasting the space weather impact: The COMESEP project, AIP Conf. Proc. 1500, 159 (2012); doi:10.1063/1.4768760
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  • Dumbović, M.; Čalogović, J.; Vršnak, B.; Temmer, M.; Mays, M. L.; Veronig, A.; Piantschitsch, I. (2018), "The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation", ApJ, 854, 180. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66
  • Feng, X., X. Zhao (2006), A New Prediction Method for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks, Solar Physics, 238, 1, doi:10.1007/s11207-006-0185-3.
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  • Jackson, B. V., P. P. Hick, M. M. Bisi, J. M. Clover, and A. Buffington (2010), Inclusion of In-Situ Velocity Measurements into the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations, Sol. Phys., 265, 245-256, doi:10.1007/s11207-010-9529-0
  • Jackson, B. V., P. P. Hick, A. Buffington, M. M. Bisi, J. M. Clover, M. Tokumaru, M. Kojima, and K. Fujiki (2011), Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) 3-D reconstruction of density enhancements behind interplanetary shocks: In-situ comparison near Earth and at STEREO, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr., 73, 1214-1227, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.11.023
  • Liu, Jiajia, Yudong Ye, Chenlong Shen, Yuming Wang, Robert Erdélyi (2018), A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA, accepted by the Astrophysical Journal. arXiv:1802.02803
  • McKenna-Lawlor, S., M. Dryer, M.D. Kartalev, Z. Smith, C.D. Fry, W. Sun, C.S. Deehr, K. Kecskemety, and K. Kudela (2006), Near Real-time Predictions of the Arrival at the Earth of Flare-generated Shocks during Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A11103, doi:10.1029/2005JA011162.
  • Möstl, C., T. Rollett, R. Frahm, Y. Liu, D. Long, R. Colaninno, M. Reiss, M. Temmer, C. Farrugia, A. Posner, M. Dumbović, M. Janvier, P. Démoulin, P. Boakes, A. Devos, E. Kraaikamp, M. L. Mays, B. Vršnak (2015), Strong coronal channeling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars, Nature Communications, 6:7135. 10.1038/ncomms8135
  • Núñez, M., T. Nieves‐Chinchilla, and A. Pulkkinen (2016), Prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data, Space Weather, 14, 544-562, , doi:10.1002/2016SW001361.
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  • Rotter, T., A. M. Veronig, M. Temmer, B. Vršnak (2015), Real-Time Solar Wind Prediction Based on SDO/AIA Coronal Hole Data, Solar Physics, 290, 5, doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0680-5.
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