The Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity (AMOS) model is designed for probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares from each active region and on solar disk.
The AMOS uses McIntosh sunspot group classes for classifying active regions (ARs), which are included in solar region summary (SRS) data provided by NOAA/SWPC. In this system, each McIntosh sunspot class is classified into three groups by its area change: Decrease, Steady, and Increase. The area change of ARs can be a proxy of magnetic flux emergence or cancellation, which are one of the main triggering mechanism for solar flares. Historical flare occurrence rates are calculated by the number of flares divided by the number of ARs for a given McIntosh class using the GOES and SRS data from 1996 to 2010.
The input parameters of this model are SRS data for two days. The output parameters are probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares for a given AR and on the disk. The prediction window is next 24 hours.
Solar Region Summary from NOAA SWPC ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-region-summary)
For each active region: C-class probability, M-class probability, X-class probability For entire solar disk (total): C-class probability, M-class probability, X-class probability
Space Weather Impacts
- Atmosphere variability (satellite/debris drag)
- Lee, K., Moon, Y.-J., Lee, J.-Y., Lee, K.-S., and Na, H., Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its Changes, Sol. Phys., 281, 639, 2012.
Code Languages: IDL
- Jongyeob Park, Kyung Hee University (Model Contact)
- Yong-Jae Moon, Kyung Hee University (Model Contact)
- Kangjin Lee, Kyung Hee University (Model Developer)
- M Leila Mays, NASA GSFC CCMC (CCMC Model Host)
- Antti Pulkkinen, NASA GSFC (CCMC Model Host)
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