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Forecasting the Arrival of ICMEs: The Drag-Based Model

Forecasting the Arrival of ICMEs:
The Drag-Based Model with constant w and γ

CME take-off date:
CME take-off time (UTC): h min
γ - drag parameter: ×10-7 km-1:
w - asymptotic solar wind speed: km/s
R0 - starting radial distance of CME: rSun
v0 - speed of CME at R0: km/s
Select target from the list:  
 
CME take-off date:
CME take-off time (UTC): h min
γ - drag parameter: ×10-7 km-1
w - asymptotic solar wind speed: km/s
R0 - starting radial distance of CME: rSun
v0 - speed of CME at R0: km/s
ω - CME's angular half-width: deg
φCME - source region central meridian distance: deg
Select target from the list:  
 

DBM stands for Drag-Based Model. The purpose of the basic form of the model is to provide a prediction of the arrival time and impact speed at the Earth. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical equivalent of the aerodynamic drag. For a given set of input parameters it provides the ICME Sun-Earth transit time, the arrival time, and the impact speed.

The advanced form of DBM provides this output for any target in the heliosphere and takes into account also the shape of ICME employing the so-called cone-geometry.

Documentation and description of calculation method for basic and advanced DBM you can find here.

The detailed description of the method can be found in my PhD Thesis (in croatian):
Eruptive processes in the solar corona and their heliospheric propagation.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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