Forecasting the Arrival of ICMEs: The Drag-Based Model

# Forecasting the Arrival of ICMEs:The Drag-Based Model with constant w and γ

 CME take-off date: CME take-off time (UTC): 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 h 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 min γ - drag parameter: ×10-7 km-1: w - asymptotic solar wind speed: km/s R0 - starting radial distance of CME: rSun v0 - speed of CME at R0: km/s Select target from the list: or enter position... Mercury Venus Earth STA STB Mars
 CME take-off date: CME take-off time (UTC): 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 h 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 min γ - drag parameter: ×10-7 km-1 w - asymptotic solar wind speed: km/s R0 - starting radial distance of CME: rSun v0 - speed of CME at R0: km/s ω - CME's angular half-width: deg φCME - source region central meridian distance: deg Select target from the list: or enter position... Mercury Venus Earth STA STB Mars

DBM stands for Drag-Based Model. The purpose of the basic form of the model is to provide a prediction of the arrival time and impact speed at the Earth. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical equivalent of the aerodynamic drag. For a given set of input parameters it provides the ICME Sun-Earth transit time, the arrival time, and the impact speed.

The advanced form of DBM provides this output for any target in the heliosphere and takes into account also the shape of ICME employing the so-called cone-geometry.

Documentation and description of calculation method for basic and advanced DBM you can find here.

The detailed description of the method can be found in my PhD Thesis (in croatian):
Eruptive processes in the solar corona and their heliospheric propagation.