Last Updated: 09/20/2024

SHINE 2019 SEP Model Challenge

SEP Challenge Materials for SHINE 2019

In 2019, the SEP working team led a session at the SHINE workshop encouraging SEP modelers to submit and discuss results for 3 community campaign events.P-

SHINE 2019 session: SEP Modeling Challenge: Research to Operations

Session description on SHINE webpage
Organizers: Katie Whitman (NASA JSC, University of Houston), Ian Richardson (University of Maryland/NASA GSFC)

  • Scene setting presentations:
  • Phil Quinn (NASA JSC SRAG)
  • Hazel Bain (CU Boulder CIRES/NOAA SWPC)
  • Participanting models:
  • ENLIL+SEPMOD - Luhmann, Lee (UC Berkeley)
  • AFRL PPS and ADEPT - White, Kahler (AFRL)
  • ENLIL+EPREM - Schwadron, Poduval (UNH)
  • STAT (MAS + EPREM) - Linker (PSI)
  • iPATH - Li (UAH)
  • SEPSTER - Richardson (UMD, GSFC)
  • UMASEP - Núñez (University of Malaga)
  • ESPERTA - Laurenza (INAF)

Full SHINE session description

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are important space weather phenomena of particular interest to communities concerned with space radiation hazards. A wide array of SEP acceleration, transport and prediction models are currently being developed in the heliophysics community that could be valuable to forecasters. However, for a successful transition from research to operations, it is important to examine how such models might be used operationally.

This session, which builds upon last year’s SEP modeling sessions, aims to spur discussion between SEP modelers from the science community, space weather forecasters from NOAA, and space radiation operators from NASA, concerning how research models might be used for operational purposes. Such discussion is timely in view of upcoming missions (such as the Lunar Outpost and missions to the Moon and Mars) outside of Earth’s protective magnetosphere.

We invite modelers to showcase their model results and discuss the questions:

  • What information about SEP events is needed for operations?
  • What kind of validation should be done to demonstrate that a model provides accurate and reliable results?
  • Which quantities should be considered for model validation as part of the SEP Working Team?
  • Could your model be used to provide an “All Clear” forecast?
  • Which observational data streams are important for the model and will they be available into the future?
  • Are there any major barriers to providing information pertinent to forecasting and operations, particularly on operational timescales?

The proposed scene setting speakers are Hazel Bain (NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center) and Phil Quinn (NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group, SRAG) who will describe how SEP forecasting and the subsequent operational response are currently being handled at NASA and NOAA.

We also invite modelers to submit predictions for three campaign events.

Campaign SEP events commencing on:

  • 10 September 2017
  • 17 May 2012
  • 7 March 2012

Modelers are encouraged to present results for both “forecasting” and “optimized” runs for the following quantities if pertinent to your model (pfu = 1/[cm^2 s sr]):
Probabilistic Models – provide forecasts leading up to the events:

  • Probability to exceed thresholds in prediction window: >10 MeV protons exceed 10 pfu; >100 MeV protons exceed 1 pfu
  • All Clear Probability (Yes/No event) for next 24 hours

Deterministic or Time Profile Models:

  • Time to cross thresholds: >10 MeV exceeds 10 pfu; >100 MeV exceeds 1 pfu
  • Warning Time for threshold crossings: How much time prior to threshold crossings was the forecast issued?
  • Time to Peak Flux for >10 MeV, >100 MeV; event is defined to start when the thresholds in the first bullet were crossed
  • Peak Flux for >10 MeV, >100 MeV
  • Duration >10 MeV, >100 MeV; event is defined to start when the thresholds in the first bullet were crossed and end when the flux drops below those thresholds
  • Event fluence (total integrated event intensity) prediction for >10 MeV, >100 MeV and/or plot of energy spectrum
  • Plot of time profile prediction for >10 MeV, >100 MeV

The values requested above are used operationally by SRAG and are also consistent with the requirements of the SEP Scoreboard under development by the CCMC and international partners. However, modelers may also provide results using energy binning equivalent to GOES differential channels or other energies and define their own SEP event start and end times.

Modelers interested in participating are encouraged to contact Katie (Kathryn.whitman@nasa.gov) for more information.

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