Model/Technique Registration (*=required):

Information about your group/project:
Name(s) and e-mail (s) (please list primary contact first)*: Sophie Murray (sophie.murray@tcd.ie), Peter Gallagher, Aoife McCloskey

Associated Institution/Project name/Group name*: Trinity College Dublin Solar Physics and Space Weather Research Group

Website url(s): www.solarmonitor.org/forecast.php 


Information about your method:
Forecasting method name*: SolarMonitor.org Flare Prediction System

Shorthand unique identifier for your method (methodname_version, e.g. ASSA_1, ASAP_201201): SOLMON_1

Short description*: Automatic active region forecasts for the next 24 hours using the Poisson method of Gallagher et al (2002).

References: Gallagher et al 2002 (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002SoPh..209..171G), Bloomfield et al 2012 (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ApJ...747L..41B), McCloskey et al 2016 (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SoPh..291.1711M) 


Further Model Details:
(1)* Please specify if the forecast is human generated, human generated but model-based, model-based, or other.
Model-based automatic method. 

(2)* Does your flare prediction method forecast “M1.0-9.9” or “M and above”? Would it be difficult for you to adapt your method from one to another? Which forecast binning method do you prefer?
M1.0-9.9.

(3)* How do you specify active regions in your model? Do you relate their location to other schemes such as NOAA or Catania? If so, what is your criteria to relate them?
NOAA numbering scheme.

(4)* Uncertainties given as an upper and lower bound is an optional field. Does your model provide uncertainties for the forecasted probability? 
If yes, what percentiles do you use to determine your upper and lower bound? If you are using the XML format, multiple percentiles of the probability density distribution can be specified.
No uncertainties are provided.

(5)* For each forecast, what prediction window(s) does your method use? E.g. Does your method predict for the next 24 hours, 48, and 72 hours or the next 24 hours, 24-48 hours, 48-72 hours? (This information is useful for displaying only comparable methods together).
Next 24 hours.

(6)* For how many degrees from disk center is your full disk forecast valid for? E.g. 60 degrees; or 90 degrees (valid for entire disk).
Valid for entire disk.

(7)* Calibration levels are optional fields. Do you have calibration for the probabilities from your model? E.g. is a 40% forecast a “high” probability for your method? 
If yes, please provide the probability ranges for what is considered a “low”, “medium”, or “high” level. This can be provided in a separate file, or as part of the main template, labeled “X_Level”, “M_Level”, and “C_Level” fields which can take the values 1, 2, or 3. These levels represent probability calibration for a model for each flare class. With 1 meaning “low” probability, 2 is “medium” probability, and 3 is “high” probability.
No calibration levels are provided.