Model/Technique Registration 

Information about your group/project:
    Contact names: Sunhak Hong (sunhak.hong@korea.kr), Sangwoo Lee (lee@spweather.com)
    Associated Institution/Project name/Group name: Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of National Radio Research Agency (RRA) / Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer (ASSA) / 
    Website url: http://www.spaceweather.go.kr


Information about your method:
    Forecasting method name: Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer
    Shorthand unique identifier for your method: ASSA_1
    Short description: 

The Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer (ASSA) is a fully automated software system of realtime monitoring and identification of key solar phenomena such as sunspot groups, coronal holes and filaments, those are three major solar sources causing the space weather.

ASSA uses highresolution SDO HMI continuum and magnetogram data as inputs and identifying sunspot groups and providing McIntosh classification and Mt. Wilson magnetic classification of each active region. 

The flare probabilities for C/M/X class are provided. The C/M/X flare probabilities are based on the result of statistical analysis of the ASSA sunspot catalog and GOES Xray flare data. In generating the ASSA sunspot catalog, the SOHO MDI Continuum and Magnetogram images were collected for the period about 15 years from September 1996 to January 2011, which is covering a complete solar cycle (the cycle 23). Then, ASSA algorithm has been applied to the whole data set to obtain 15-year sunspot catalog based on ASSA. The result of McIntosh classification for all sunspot groups are associated with X-ray events catalog to yield C/M/X flare probability for each McIntosh class. 
 
    References:
1. Bloomfield, D. S., Higgins, P. A., McAteer, R. T. J., Gallagher, P. T., ApJL, 747, L41, 2012 
2. Colak, T., and Qahwaji, R., Solar Physics, 248, 277, 2007 
3. Krista, L. D. and Gallagher, P. T., Solar Physics, 256, 87, 2009 
4. Shih, F. Y. and Kowalsky, A. J., Solar Physics, 218, 99, 2003 
5. SangWoo Lee, JeungDeok Lee, Sunhak Hong, ASSA GUI User Manual, Version 1.07 ( http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/images/assa/ASSA_GUI_MANUAL.pdf ) 
6. Sunhak Hong, SangWoo Lee, ASSA evaluation report, Version 1.0
  
Further Model Details:
    (1) Please specify if the forecast is human generated, human generated but model-based, model-based, or other.

model-based

    (2) Does your flare prediction method forecast “M1.0-9.9” or “M and above”? Would it be difficult for you to adapt your method from one to another? Which forecast binning method do you prefer?

M1.0-9.9

    (3) How do you specify active regions in your model? Do you relate their location to other schemes such as NOAA or Catania? If so, what is your criterea to relate them?

The ASSA identifies active regions and provides sunspot classification results according to McIntosh Classification rule and Mt. Wilson Magnetic Classification rule.  

    (4) Uncertainties given as an upper and lower bound is an optional field. Does your model provide uncertainties for the forecasted probability? 
If yes, what percentiles do you use to determine your upper and lower bound? If you are using the XML format, multiple percentiles of the probability density distribution can be specified.

No, it does not provide uncertainties. 

    (5) For each forecast, what prediction window(s) does your method use? E.g. Does your method predict for the next 24 hours, 48, and 72 hours or the next 24 hours, 24-48 hours, 48-72 hours? 

next 12 hours