#Flare_Forecast_MAG4_20131023_1200.txt #File name format: Flare_Forecast_modelname_yyyymmdd_hhmm.txt Forecasting method: MAG4 Issue Time: 2013-10-23T12:00Z Prediction Window Start Time: 2013-10-23T12:00Z Prediction Window End Time: 2013-10-24T12:00Z Probability Bins: M+ Input data: SDO/HMI LOS_Magnetogram ############################## # Explanation of File Format ############################## # Forecasting method: Name of flare forecasting model/method # Time: Time of forecast issuance in the format yyyy-mm-ddThh:mmZ # Probability Bins: Specified as "M" or "M+" depending on whether the method forecasts "M1.0-9.9" or "M and above" # Input data (optional): Input data used by your model/method # Prediction window (hours): Prediction window after the time of forecast listed above. # # X_prob: Probability of X class flare in decimal format (4 places) # X_CI_Lower (optional): Lower end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in X class flare probability in decimal format (4 places) # Upper (optional): Upper end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in X class flare probability in decimal format (4 places) # X_Level: Calibration of probability for the model for X class flares (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high) # M_prob: Probability of M class flare in decimal format (4 places) # M_CI_Lower (optional): Lower end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in M class flare probability in decimal format (4 places) # Upper (optional): Upper end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in M class flare probability in decimal form # M_Level: Calibration of probability for the model for M class flares (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high) # C_prob (optional): Probability of C class flare in decimal format (4 places) # C_CI_Lower (optional): Lower end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in C class flare probability in decimal format (4 places) # Upper (optional): Upper end of confidence interval (uncertainty) in C class flare probability in decimal form # C_Level (optional unless C_prob is given): Calibration of probability for the model for C class flares (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high) # Model_Region_No. : Region number as labeled by the model # Time: Time for the specified location # Location: Location as determined by the model in format NXXEXX. # NOAA_AR_No.: Corresponding NOAA Active Region number to the region identified by the model (Model_Region_No.) # Time: Time for the specified location # Location: NOAA Active Region location # # Guidelines: # Region Forecast section is optional, Full Disk Forecast section is required # Use ---- when leaving optional fields empty # Leave Region Forecast section blank if only submitting full disk forecast # ############################## #Full Disk Forecast #X_prob X_CI_Lower Upper X_Level M_prob M_CI_Lower Upper M_Level C_prob C_CI_Lower Upper C_Level 0.4000 0.3000 0.4800 3 0.6800 0.6500 0.7000 3 0.7500 0.7100 0.7700 3 #Region Forecast #Model_Region_No. Time Location NOAA_AR_No. Time Location X_prob X_CI_Lower Upper X_Level M_prob M_CI_Lower Upper M_Level C_prob C_CI_Lower Upper C_Level 06 2013-10-23T00:30Z S10E00 12192 2013-10-23T00:30Z S12E00 0.3900 0.3100 0.4500 3 0.7000 0.6500 0.7500 3 0.7200 0.7000 0.7400 3 08 2013-10-23T00:30Z N05W35 12193 2013-10-23T00:30Z N05W37 0.0050 0.0000 0.0500 1 0.0200 0.0000 0.1000 2 0.0500 0.0100 0.0800 2