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Model Developer(s)
Richard Boynton, Michael Balikhin, Stephen Billings
University of Sheffield

Model Description

A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a forecast of the daily averaged electron flux at GEO. NARMAX is a black box methodology and was trained on electron flux data from GOES13. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.

Model Input
The inputs to the model are the daily averaged L1 solar wind velocity and density, along with the fraction of time that the IMF is southward.

Model Output
Daily averaged >2 MeV integral electron flux at GEO (electrons/(cm^2 sr day))

References and relevant publications
Boynton, R. J., Balikhin, M. A., Billings, S. A., and Amariutei, O. A.: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1579-1589, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-1579-2013, 2013.

Relevant links

CCMC Contact(s)


Developer Contact(s)

phone: +44(0)1142225234

phone: +44(0)1142225628

phone: +44(0)1142225232

Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering
The University of Sheffield
Mappin Street
Sheffield, S1 3JD
United Kingdom

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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