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SAMI3 Low-to-Mid-Latitude Ionosphere


CCMC Services available for SAMI3
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Model Developer(s)
Joseph Huba, Glenn Joyce, Marc Swisdak
Plasma Physics Div., Naval Research Laboratory and Icarus Research, Inc.

Model Description
Uses line of sight (LOS) or vector magnetograms to measure free energy proxies for each AR on the solar disk. The free energy proxies include the gradient of the magnetic field across the neutral line, the magnetic shear angle across the neutral line, and others. These free energy proxies are used to relate to historically derived event rates, and with Poisson statistics, probabilities of the occurrence of >M-class flares, >X-class flare, CMEs, Fast CMEs, and SPEs within the next 24 hours.

Model results from LOS inputs are accurate for 30 heliocentric degrees and 45-60 heliocentric degrees for vector inputs.

There are many forecasts created from MAG4:

1) Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEr [HMI-NRT] MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data. Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEd definitive data 2) Shortname: MAG4_LOS_r [WF-HMI-NRT] MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data. Shortname: MAG4_LOS_d definitive data [WF=with flares] 3) Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_FE [V-HMI-NRT] "MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data." Shortname: MAG4_HARP_FE MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Definitive data. [Uses MDI forecast curves] [V=Vector] 4) Shortname: MAG4_SHARP [VWF-HMI-NRT] MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data. Shortname: MAG4_HARP MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data. [Uses MDI forecast curves] [WF=with flares] [V=Vector] 5) Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_HMI [VPLUS-HMI-NRT] MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data. Shortname: MAG4_HARP_HMI MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data. [Was labelled VPLUS=Uses new forecast curves computed from HMI] 6) FUTURE: MAG4_LOS_GONG_FE 7) FUTURE: MAG4_LOS_GONG

Model Input

Where to get parameters:
AP, F10.7
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/dayind.html
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/

Model Output

References and relevant publications
A tool for empirical forecasting of major flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar particle events from a proxy of active region free magnetic energy
Prior Flaring as a Complement to Free Magnetic Energy for Forecasting Solar Eruptions
MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

Relevant links
Model Website: https://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page

CCMC Contact(s)

301-286-1648

Developer Contact(s)

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202-767-6863

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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