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Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity


CCMC Services available for AMOS
View Real Time Run
View iSWA cygnet for this model

Model Developer(s)
Kangjin Lee, Jongyeob Park, Yong-Jae Moon
Kyung Hee University

Model Description
The Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity (AMOS) model is designed for probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares from each active region and on solar disk.

The AMOS uses McIntosh sunspot group classes for classifying active regions (ARs), which are included in solar region summary (SRS) data provided by NOAA/SWPC. In this system, each McIntosh sunspot class is classified into three groups by its area change: Decrease, Steady, and Increase. The area change of ARs can be a proxy of magnetic flux emergence or cancellation, which are one of the main triggering mechanism for solar flares. Historical flare occurrence rates are calculated by the number of flares divided by the number of ARs for a given McIntosh class using the GOES and SRS data from 1996 to 2010.

The input parameters of this model are SRS data for two days. The output parameters are probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares for a given AR and on the disk. The prediction window is next 24 hours.

Model Input
The input parameters of this model are SRS data for two days.
McIntosh sunspot group classification: McIntosh sunspot group classes for classifying active regions (ARs), which are included in solar region summary (SRS) data provided by NOAA/SWPC.

Model Output
The output parameters are probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares for a given AR and on the disk.

For each active region: C-class probability, M-class probability, X-class probability
For entire solar disk (total): C-class probability, M-class probability, X-class probability.

References and relevant publications

Relevant links
Model Website at Kyung Hee University

CCMC Contact(s)

301-286-1999

Developer Contact(s)


National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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