In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues an SEP event prediction. UMASEP analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of five different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations.
There are five variations of the UMASEP model:
- UMASEP-10 (Núñez, 2011), for predicting >10 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 15.1 - 21.9 MeV;
- UMASEP-30 for predicting >30 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 31.6 - 45.7 MeV;
- UMASEP-50 for predicting >50 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 45.7 - 66.1 MeV;
- UMASEP-100 (Núñez, 2015) for predicting >100 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 95.6 - 138.3 MeV;
- HESPERIA UMASEP-500 (Núñez et al, 2017) for predicting GLE and >500 MeV proton events.
These models correlate X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, they predict the occurrence and peak intensity of SEP events and SEP fluences in the aforementioned energies.
GOES soft x-ray flux, GOES differential and integral proton flux.
The temporal cadence of the analyzed input data is 5 minutes in the case of UMASEP-10 and UMASEP-100, and 1 minute in the case of HESPERIA UMASEP-500.
The five models predict SEP/GLE event occurrences. UMASEP-10, UMASEP-30, UMASEP-50 and UMASEP-100 also predict the peak SEP flux (HESPERIA UMASEP_500 does not predict the peak flux). The forecast window of these predictions are: 7 hours for >10 MeV protons (UMASEP-10), 6 hours for >30 MeV protons (UMASEP-30), 5 hours for >50 MeV protons (UMASEP-50), 3 hours for >100 MeV protons (UMASEP-100), 1 hour for GLE/>500 MeV events (HESPERIA UMASEP-500), and 7 hours for the 15-138 MeV SEP fluence spectrum
Model is time-dependent.
- Heliosphere / Inner Heliosphere
Space Weather Impacts
- Near-earth radiation and plasma environment (aerospace assets functionality)
- Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)
- Evaluation of the UMASEP-10 Version 2 Tool for Predicting All >10 MeV SEP Events of Solar Cycles 22, 23 and 24
- Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events
- Real-time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events
- Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV)
Code Languages: Java
- Marlon Núñez, University of Malaga (Model Developer)
- Sandro Taktakishvili, NASA GSFC CCMC (CCMC Model Host)
In addition to any model-specific policy, please refer to the General Publication Policy.