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Real-time Forecasting Methods Validation: SEP Scoreboard Planning Page

CCMC is in the planning phase of the "SEP scoreboard" together with Mark Dierckxsens and Norma Crosby from BIRA-IASB, Mike Marsh of the UK Met Office and the international research community. This project will build upon the flare scoreboard and CME arrival time scoreboard. The SEP scoreboard will be an automated system such that model/method developers can have their predictions automatically uploaded to an anonymous ftp which will be parsed and databased by the system. SEP forecasts can be roughly divided into three categories: (1) Continuous/Probabilistic (2) Solar event triggered (3) Non near real-time. The SEP scoreboard will focus on real-time forecasts (first and second categories), but this group will also coordinate with the SEP working team to evaluate different models for a set of historical events. This is particularly useful for the physics-based models in the third category that are not ready or relevant for real-time modeling.
Click here to go to the SEP Working Team page.

At this stage we are soliciting feedback from SEP forecasters on:
  (1) What information should be contained in the forecast files. See below for proposed forecast submission file format and planning.
  (2) Ideas on displaying forecasts side by side, or combining forecasts.
  (3) What quantities to validate. Ideas include: SEP event vs no event (including all-clear), event onset time, peak intensity, peak time, energy spectrum evolution, event anisotropy evolution.

Please email Mark Dierckxsens, Mike Marsh, Masha Kuznetsova, and Leila Mays with your feedback which will be shared with the SEP scoreboard planning group.

Latest News:
➡ The SEP scoreboard is part of the the SEP Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
See the agenda of ESWW13 working meeting: Community-wide space weather Scoreboards: Research assessment of real-time forecasting models and techniques.

SEP scoreboard planning group:
Please contact us to join
Leads: Mark Dierckxsens, Norma Crosby (BIRA-IASB), Mike Marsh (UK Met Office)

Ian Richardson (UMD/GSFC), Jesse Adries, Veronique Delouille (SIDC), Nathan Schwadron (UNH), Marlon Nunez (U Malaga), Anastasios Anastasiadis, Olga Malandraki (National Observatory of Athens), A. Posner (NASA HQ), B. Heber (Univ. of Kiel), J. Labrenz (Univ. of Kiel), Masha Kuznetsova (CCMC), M. Leila Mays (CCMC)


Participating partners:
                  

Proposed forecast submission file format:

Proposed forecast submission file format for (2) solar event triggered forecasts:
XML: XML schema file, schema layout, example1, example2

Currently Registered Models

COMESEP SEPForecast  
COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles SEPForecast
FORSPEF  

Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares
UMASEP  
University of Malaga Solar energetic proton Event Predictor
Models coming soon: REleASE (HESPERIA), HESPERIA UMASEP-500, PREDICCS, MAG4

SEP Scoreboard Proton Flux and Profile Forecast Visualization Mock-up


Feedback welcome!

Reports & Presentations


How to get started with the SEP Scoreboard:

     Participating modelers will respond fill in the registration questionnaire below and email it to Leila Mays. We will then create a folder for the model on our anonymous ftp site.
     Participants will produce SEP forecasts conforming to the file format (XML; see above).
     SEP forecast files will be accepted by anonymous ftp, each model has an assigned folder.
     All information will be stored in a database which will be made accessible to users via an API - to be developed.
      CCMC Rules of the Road apply: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, SEP model/technique developers and submitting forecasters before performing validation studies with the SEP Scoreboard database. It is recommended that such validation studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.
     SEP forecasts will be displayed side by side on the "SEP Scoreboard" website - to be developed.


Model/Technique Registration (*=required):

Information about your group/project:
    Name(s) and e-mail (s) (please list primary contact first)*:
    Associated Institution/Project name/Group name*:
    Website url(s):
    Logo(s):

Information about your method:
    Forecasting method name*:
    Shorthand unique identifier for your method (methodname_version, e.g. ModelName_1 or ModelName_201201):
    Short description*:
    Model Inputs*:
    Model Outputs*:
    References:

Further Model Details:
    (1)* Is the forecast made continuously (e.g. probability for the next 24 hours, or a time series), or event-triggered (e.g. by a flare or CME).

    (2)* Is the forecast human generated, human generated but model-based, model-based, or other.

    (3)* If model-based: is the model empirical, physics-based or both.



SEP Models in the Community and Literature (compiled by Mike Marsh)

Model Type Model Name Principal Developer(s) Observational Inputs Outputs
Empirial AER SEP model Lisa Winter (AER) Type II, Type III, and Langmuir wave properties measured from Wind/WAVES probability of a > 10 MeV proton event (> 10 pfu)
Empirial AFRL PPS Stephen Kahler (AFRL) GOES x-ray peak flux & location E>5 MeV intensities
Physics EPREM Nathan Schwadron (UNH) Can be driven by in-situ proton observations, can be coupled with MHD User defined flux range, also dose calculations within EMMREM framework
Physics FLAMPA (SWMF) University of Michigan SWMF module coupled with MHD
Empirical FORSPEF Anastasios Anastasiadis (NOA) Magnetograms, x-ray flares E > 30,60,100 MeV integral proton energy flux and fluence
Physics Kota SEP (SWMF) University of Michigan SWMF module coupled with MHD
Empirical Laurenza model Monica Laurenza (INAF)
Physics Luhmann Model Janet Luhmann (UCB SSL) Coupled with WSA-ENLIL+Cone (magnetograms, coronagraphs) User defined flux range
Empirical MAG4 David Falconer (NASA/MSFC, UAH) Magnetograms, x-ray flares 24 hour event probabilistic forecast
Physics PATH Gary Zank, Gang Li (UAH)
Physics & Empirical PREDICCS Nathan Schwadron (UNH) (coupled version of EMMREM and REleASE)
Empirical REleASE Arik Posner SOHO/COSTEP-EPHIN high energy electron flux. ACE/EPAM in new version E=4-9, 9-16, 16-40, 28-50 MeV proton flux
Empirical SEPForecast (COMESEP) Mark Dierckxsens (BIRA IASB) GOES x-ray peak flux & location, CME width & velocity, GLE observations E>10 MeV and >60 MeV integral proton energy peak flux and probability
Physics SOLPENCO Angels Aran (Univ. Barcelona) CME/Flare location & shock velocity estimate User defined flux range
Physics SPARX Silvia Dalla (UCLan)
Mike Marsh (UK Met Office)
Flare location, peak x-ray flux User defined flux range
Empirical SWPC PPM Christopher Balch (NOAA/SWPC) GOES x-ray, SEON radio burst, H-alpha/EUV imaging E>10 MeV integral peak proton flux, peak time, and probability
Empirical SWPC NOAA/SWPC Day 1-3 event probabilistic forecast
Empirical UMASEP Marlon Nuñez (Univ. Malaga) Goes x-ray & proton fluxes E>10 MeV integral proton flux. E>100 MeV proton flux in new version.
Empirical UK Met Office UK Met Office Day 1-4 event probabilistic forecast
Physics Zhang model Ming Zhang (FIT)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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