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Real-time Forecasting Methods Validation: IMF Bz Scoreboard

CCMC is in the design and implementation phase of the "Bz Scoreboard" together with the international research community. The Bz scoreboard is designed as an automated system to evaluate skills for any predictions of the magnetic characteristics observed at L1.

The scoreboard will provide all international scientists and forecasters a single location where the community can test and prototype a variety of models than span the regime between fully operational to initial research ideas.

IMF Bz Scoreboard planning group:
Leads: Neel Savani (UMBC/NASA GSFC), Pete Riley (Predictive Science)
CCMC Facilitator: Leila Mays (NASA/GSFC)

Please email Neel Savani, Pete Riley, or Leila Mays to get involved.

Latest News:

➡ The IMF Bz scoreboard is part of the IMF Bz Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
➡ The first working group report prior to the workshop can be seen here.
➡ Summary of the findings and discussions from the Florida meeting can be seen here.

Currently registered models:

The models below are involved in assessing the appropriate strategy for skill evaluations. They are each at different stages of development:

Data driven
Bz4Cast model (N. Savani)
Helicity-CME (H-CME) model (Patsourakos, Georgoulis)
A. Rouillard model
PSI Pattern Recognition model (Riley et al. 2016; real-time forecast page; source code)

Numerical simulation
SUSANOO (D. Shiota)
EUHFORIA (J. Pomoell, S. Poedts)
EEGGL+SWMF AWSoM_R (Igor Sokolov, Bart van der Holst, Meng Jin (now at Lockheed Martin), Ward Manchester, Gabor Toth and Tamas Gombosi)

IMF Bz Scoreboard Mock-up

TBD.

Initial ideas for the forecasts are to provide a clear visual of ROC curves to evaluate the skill of the magnetic vectors. And then to provide additional links and information via an interactive iSWA display of forecast data streams. Suggestions welcome!

Proposed forecast submission:

Developers Models/methods upload their predictions automatically to an anonymous ftp (under construction) which will be parsed by the system.

The team will initially use the templates developed by the Flare Scoreboard – which will be accepting results via three avenues (click each for proposed template):
    (1) XML: XML schema, , template, full example
    (2) Plain text
    (3) manual form input


National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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