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Real-time Forecasting Methods Validation: IMF Bz Scoreboard

The "IMF Bz Scoreboard" is led by Peter Riley (Predictive Science) and Matthew Owens (University of Reading). It is currently in planning phase and will be designed as an automated system to gather real-time interplanetary magnetifc field (IMF) forecasts at L1 and evaluate their accuracy. The scoreboard will provide international scientists and forecasters witha signle location where the community can test a variety of models that span the full spectrum of models from fully operational to basic research ideas in a real-time environment

IMF Bz Scoreboard planning group:
Leads: Pete Riley (Predictive Science), Matthew Owens (University of Reading)
CCMC Facilitator: Leila Mays (NASA/GSFC)
Previous leads: Neel Savani (UMBC/NASA GSFC)

Please email Pete Riley, Matthew Owens, or Leila Mays to get involved.

Latest News:

➡ April 2017: The IMF Bz scoreboard is part of the IMF Bz Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
➡ The first working group report prior to the workshop can be seen here.
➡ Summary of the findings and discussions from the Florida meeting can be seen here.

Models:

The models below are involved in assessing the appropriate strategy for skill evaluations. They are each at different stages of development:

Data driven
Bz4Cast model (N. Savani)
Helicity-CME (H-CME) model (Patsourakos, Georgoulis)
A. Rouillard model
PSI Pattern Recognition model (Riley et al. 2016; real-time forecast page; source code)

Numerical simulation
SUSANOO (D. Shiota)
EUHFORIA (J. Pomoell, S. Poedts)
EEGGL+SWMF AWSoM_R (Igor Sokolov, Bart van der Holst, Meng Jin (now at Lockheed Martin), Ward Manchester, Gabor Toth and Tamas Gombosi)

IMF Bz Scoreboard Mock-up

TBD. Suggestions welcome!

Proposed forecast submission format:

Developers Models/methods upload their predictions automatically to an anonymous ftp (under construction) which will be parsed by the system.

The team will build a format based on ideas form the formats for the Flare Scoreboard and SEP Scoreboard.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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