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Shine Model Challenge Update

CONTENTS

1. Summer 2011 Session Summary
2. Suggested Goals for SHINE 2012
3. YOUR ACTION ITEMS
4. Criteria for Selection of Solar Minimum CRs
Attachment: FORWARD input format specification

1. Summer 2011 Session Summary

We had a very lively and well attended session with a large number of participants expressing their interest and opinion about how the Challenge problems should be defined. My brief summary of the most salient points is as follows:

General Philosophy:

(a) The goal is to expose the scientific strengths and weaknesses of the models rather than to focus on specific narrowly defined parameters required for operational space weather forecasting. Therefore, the challenge should compare many different aspects of the model solutions.
(b) The challenge should be structured to require minimal recoding by the model owners.
(c) The CCMC will establish a web site to receive results posted by model owners and disseminate these results to all those participating in the challenge.

1. There should be two problem sets, one focussed on coronal structure and the second on the structure in the inner heliosphere.
2. The problem sets should focus on ambient conditions, not on transient events such as flares and CMEs.
3. The problem sets should include solar minimum and solar maximum times.
4. The model runs should test the influence of different synoptic magnetogram sources.
5. A set of post-processing analysis and graphics products will be configured at the CCMC for application to the results from all relevant models.
6. The coronal model runs will be analysed to compare field topology (including coronal hole locations and current sheet streamer base size), and EUV and X-ray emissivities in selected lines or broad-band ranges for comparison with full disk observations.
7. Additional metrics might include differential emission measures of selected features (ie loops, coronal holes, etc) and possibly line cuts through the emissivity profiles.
8. The inner heliospheric models should be tested both in and out of the ecliptic.
9. Features to be tested against might include, sector boundaries, CIR and SIR location and structure, helmet streamer location.

2. Suggested Goals for SHINE 2012

Yesterday (2/13/12) I received confirmation from David Alexander that we WILL have a follow up session at this summer's workshop. Currently we are on the schedule for a half day session on the afternoon of Tuesday (June 26).

I suggest that our goal for this meeting be to submit preliminary results for the ambient corona and heliosphere for two CR's typical of solar minimum. I suggest that two good candidates are CRs 2058 and 2062. I have briefly outlined the criteria I considered in selecting these candidates at the end of this email.

I also suggest that we defer the Solar Maximum test cases to SHINE 2013, since this will enable us to select test cases with comprehensive SDO and Stereo coverage.

To generate our first cut at synthetic images of the corona based on model output, we will use Sarah Gibson's FORWARD tool (http://people.hao.ucar.edu/sgibson/FORWARD/). To generate synthetic heliospheric imager style images of the inner heliosphere we will use a suite of Idl programs developed by Dusan Odstrcil.

Initially participating modelers should submit output files to me at the CCMC and I will take responsibility for generating the synthetic image output, in consultation with the modelers. Eventually I hope that we will be able to automate this submission process. I have attached a brief description of the ideal format for submission of results for processing through FORWARD. A similar format is acceptable for the inner heliospheric results. It is my intention to discuss this issue in detail with each participant to make sure that they can deliver results in a format which we can use and which they can generate with minimal effort.

3. YOUR ACTION ITEMS

Everybody: Consider the suggested solar minimums (CRs 2058 and 2062), and if you feel there are better choices, please email me your alternate suggestions by no later than cob Feb 29.

Modelers: Please confirm your groups intention to participate and contact me (by email or phone (301-286-2061) to discuss specific issues associated with readying your model to run the test cases and generate the appropriately formatted output files.

4. Criteria for Selection of Solar Minimum CRs

In developing a list of candidate CRs for the solar minimun test cases I considered the following criteria:
1. Choose a time near solar minimum. (1996-1997 or 2007-2010)
2. Choose a time when the previous and succeeding CRs look very similar
3. Choose a time when more than one observatory is available for all three CRs
4. Choose a time when an inner heliosphere mission is out of the ecliptic but inside 2AU
5. Choose a time that has been studied before
6. Choose a time when good EUV full disk coverage is available
7. Choose a time when there are few CMEs

Ulysses Trajectory

Jan 1 1996 3.05AU Lat 53.1 HGI lon 67.7
Jul 1 1996 4.02AU Lat 32.7 HGI lon 74.7
Jan 1 1997 4.71AU Lat 19.0 HGI lon 77.7
Jul 1 1996 5.15AU Lat 8.5 HGI lon 79.6
Jan 1 1998 5.37AU Lat -0.9 HGI lon 81.2
Jan 1 2007 2.62AU Lat -76.5 HGI lon 130.3
Jul 1 2007 1.49AU Lat -27.8 HGI lon 255.4
Jan 1 2008 1.98AU Lat 78.7 HGI lon 325.9
Jul 1 2008 3.17AU Lat 51.6 HGI lon 67.7
Jan 1 2009 4.10AU Lat 31.7 HGI lon 74.5
Jul 1 2009 4.75AU Lat 18.4 HGI lon 77.5
Jan 1 2010 5.17AU Lat 7.7 HGI lon 79.5
Jul 1 2010 5.38AU Lat -1.6 HGI lon 81.2
Jan 1 2011 5.39AU Lat -10.7 HGI lon 82.9

Gong synoptic magnetograms available since July, 2006.

Mid to late 2007 is CR range 2058 to 2064

Magnetograms available from Gong, NSO, MWO, Wilcox and MDI(?) with the exception of CRs 2059 and 2063 from NSO which have bad data. Current sheet is very stable from 2058-2060 and 2061-2064 with relatively minor differences between the two periods. SOHO data is available from EIT, CDS, Lasco and UVCS, and Hinode XRT

STEREO had reasonable separation.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

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