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Solar Flare Prediction Working Team

Team Leads: S. Murray, M. Georgoulis, S. Bloomfield, KD Leka
Scoreboard Leads: S. Murray, M. L. Mays

Communications: (mailing list); slack: (email leads to join our slack discussion channels)
Participants: Anastasios Anastasiadis · Shaun Bloomfield · Monica Bobra · David Falconer · Manolis K. Georgoulis* · Jordan Guerra · Rachel Hock-Mysliwiec · Irina Kitiashvili* · Alexander Kosovichev* · Kangjin Lee · Laure Lefevre* · KD Leka · Periasamy K Manoharan* · Daniel Matthiä* · Leila Mays* · Mike McAleenan* · Karin Muglach* · Sophie Murray* · Naoto Nishizuka · Pete Riley · Aleksandre Taktakishvili* · Matthew West* · Katherine Winters* · Jie Zhang ·
Tarek Al-Ubaidi* · Michael Balikhin* · Francois-Xavier Bocquet · Mark Cheung · Yaireska Collado-Vega* · Francis Eparvier* · Natalia Ganushkina* · Laura Godoy* · Christina Kay · Yuki Kubo · Masha Kuznetsova* · Peter MacNeice* · Anthony Mannucci* · Marilena Mierla · Chigomezyo Ngwira* · Ian Richardson* · Alexis Rouillard · Howard Singer* · Robert Steenburgh* · Manuela Temmer · Barbara Thompson* · Alexandra Wold* · Tom Woods · KiChang Yoon · Yihua Zheng* ·

*attending 2017 CCMC-LWS working meeting

Latest News
  ✶  Agenda and materials from the ESWW15 (2018) Topical Discussion Meeting: Flare Forecasting: where are we and where should we be going?
  ✶  April 2017 working meeting: team agenda | solar/heliosphere agenda | full agenda

User Needs
🚧 under construction

Working Team Goals
  ✶  Evaluate where we stand with solar flare prediction; define specific questions.
  ✶  Agree on different metrics that address the specific questions chosen.
  ✶  Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed.
  ✶  Complementary to the Flare Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time flare predictions and ultimately facilitate validation.
  ✶  Complentary to the ISEE/PSTEP workshop. This workshop will focus on the comarison of currently operational flare prediction models.

Working Team Deliverables
  ✶  Catalog of metrics including how they address specific questions, and relate to user needs.
  ✶  Online database of model outputs with complete input/output metadata, and observations.
  ✶  Selecting time intervals based on chosen questions.
  ✶  Ensure standardized flare predictions for making comparisons.
  ✶  Model assessments for selected time intervals.
  ✶  Publication describing model assessment results summarizing where we stand with solar flare prediction.

By April 2017: Deliver the first item, and make a start on the second item through collaboration with the Information Architecture for Interactive Archives (IAIA) working team. Collaborate with the working team: Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Toward Science Understanding and Operational Readiness.

Potential Questions to Address
Where do we stand with solar flare prediction?
  ✶  Beginning vs end of solar cycle
  ✶  Peak vs other parts of solar cycle
  ✶  Influence of prior flare information
  ✶  Over long time periods

Please contribute to this draft list of potential items for this team to address.

Physical Quantities and Metrics for Model Validation
This team will deliver a catalog metrics including how they address specific questions, and relate to user needs. This will be discussed during the April 2017 working meeting. Some items to help the discussion:
  ✶  Evolving document of some common metrics used for flare prediction
  ✶  Barnes et al. (2016) paper

Observation Data
  ✶  Flare forecasts are generally probabilistic in nature, giving a forecast of when a GOES soft X-ray class flare will occur over a certain defined time period. Specifics one how the GOES observations should be compared to the probabilistic predictions will be part of disussion at the April 2017 working meeting.

Participating Models
  ✶  Please contact us about your model to participate
  ✶  Some participants overlap with those from the Flare Scoreboard: AMOS, ASAP, ASSA, BoM, MAG4, Met Office, SIDC, UFCORIN.

List of Time Intervals in this Study
🚧 under construction   ✶  Consider some period of overlap with SEP working team intervals

Resources and Past Progress
🚧 under construction
  ✶  Barnes et al. (2016), A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. I. Results from the “All-Clear” Workshop, ApJ, 829, 2. doi:10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89. Website for data from the workshop.
  ✶  Scoreboard discussion at ESWW13 in November 2016
  ✶  Flare Scoreboard

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