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Internal Charging

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Internal Charging Working Team

keV–MeV electrons

Team Leads: P. O'Brien, Yuri Shprits (contact team leads/forum organizers to be added to the team)
Participants: Michael Balikhin* · Yaireska Collado-Vega* · Natalia Ganushkina* · Insoo Jun* · Adam Kellerman* · James McCollough · Joseph Minow* · Steven Morley* · PAUL OBRIEN* · Yuri Shprits · Howard Singer* · Yihua Zheng* ·
Laila Andersson · Janessa Buhler* · Consuelo Cid · Manolis K. Georgoulis* · Laura Godoy* · Michael Henderson · Chris Jeffery* · Piers Jiggens* · Masha Kuznetsova* · Kangjin Lee · Daniel MatthiƤ* · Mike McAleenan* · Collin Meierbachtol* · Chigomezyo Ngwira* · larry paxton* · Steve Petrinec* · DAVE PITCHFORD · Lutz Rastaetter* · Alexis Rouillard · W. Kent Tobiska* · Katherine Winters* · KiChang Yoon ·

Communications: (mailing list)

Google drive: documents for radiation and plasma effects teams

User Needs
User groups:

  ⊕  Satellite design (SD)
  ⊕  Satellite operators and anomaly analysts (SOAA)
  ⊕  Scientists (not top priority for our focus team, but want to include if we can) (SCI)
  ⊕  Insurance companies (IC)
  ⊕  Government agencies included in SWORM task force (GA)

Satellite design:
Need worst case spectra, but worst case is hard to define: depends on time history of hours to days to months even, and depends on shielding.

Satellite anomaly resolution:
Need the electron spectrum along vehicle trajectory for hours leading up to anomaly. Also need this information over history of mission to get a sense of whether time of anomaly was especially severe.

Working Team Goals

Working Team Deliverables

Physical Quantities and Metrics for Model Validation
Metrics for each user group

  ⊕  SD+IC: Peak 12-hour average current emerging from 100 mils slab Al shielding at GEO and GTO over 10 year mission. Binary: is it above/below the NASA-4002 safe level (100 fA/cm2)
  ⊕  SOAA+GA: 12-hour average current emerging from 100 mils slab Al shielding at GEO and GTO over from launch to now +Forecast
  ⊕  SCI: Total radiation belt content above some energy? Belt indices like POES? (>0.1 MeV, >1 MeV, >2 MeV, >4 MeV) averaged over 1 hour, 12 hours, 3 days, 1 week.

Error metrics to consider:
  ⊕  Normalized difference, average normalized difference, Table 4 of Subbotin et al., 2009
  ⊕  Median log accuracy ratio and median symmetric accuracy. (Morley, LA-UR-16-24592, Alternatives to accuracy and bias metrics based on percentage errors for radiation belt modeling applications)
  ⊕  Spence et al. 2004 CISM metrics. Metric was MSE (the mean square- error) or SS (Skill Score), but gave list of physical quantities whose error should be tracked, and models for each Median L* at fixed M or E, (K=0)
  ⊕  Principal component amplitudes
  ⊕  Correlation coefficient between the observed and modeled peak of the outer belt, inner and outer edges of the outer belt

Available Data Sources
Observations, impact information

Participating Models
Empirical model for each metric
  ⊕  SD+IC: AE9, extreme value analyses, (long term reanalysis)
  ⊕  SOAA+GA:
  ⊕  GOES data for GEO vehicles
  ⊕  GREEP (Geosynchronous Radiation-belt Electron Empirical Prediction) for GEO
  ⊕  NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average modelling) for GEO
  ⊕  CRRESELE driven by sumKp?
  ⊕  SCI: (could maybe pull this out of CRRESELE for >1 day timescales)
Physical model for each metric
  ⊕  SD+IC: VERB, SALAMBO, DREAM (long term reanalysis)
  ⊕  SOAA+GA: VERB, SALAMBO, DREAM, RBE, BAS, etc. (long term reanalysis or sim)
  ⊕  SCI: same as SOAA
(Note problem with distinction between empirical and physical models is data assimilative models: where do they fall in? Even physical simulations with heavily influential boundary conditions behave more like assimilative models. One way to draw the line: does the model advance an equation of state through physical simulation over time?)

List of Time Intervals in this Study

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