International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment

Forum Home | Working Teams & Topics |  Overall Goals and Deliverables  | Sign Up | FAQ |  ICCMC-LWS Working Meeting & Presentations 

Related Links | Frequently Asked Questions | Community Feedback | Downloads | Sitemap
CCMC Home | CCMC Stakeholders | Our Team | Publications | Meetings and Workshops | Concept of Operations
Models At A Glance | ModelWeb Catalog and Archive
Request Procedures | Generate Input Data Files & Parameters | Movies on Request | About the Run Process | Publications Policy
Search run database | Request run output | Special events | Kameleon Software | Space Weather Explorer | Publications policy
Instant Model Run
Forecasting Support tools | iSWA | DONKI | Mission Support | Experimental Real Time Simulations | Operational Geospace Model Validations
Intl Forum | GEM Challenge | CEDAR ETI Challenge | GEM-CEDAR Challenge | SHINE Challenge | CME Arrival Time Scoreboard | Flare Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | IMF Bz Scoreboard
Educational materials &activities | Space Weather REDI Initiative | SW REDI Bootcamp | Student Research Contest | Tutorial at CEDAR | Forecaster Tools
Missions near Earth/in Earth-orbit | MMS | Van Allen Probes | THEMIS | MESSENGER | STEREO | Spitzer | MAVEN | MSL | Dawn | Kepler | EPOXI | Juno | CASSINI | Voyager | New Horizons | Sounding Rockets | International
Research Community Support | CCMC Workshops | NASA Robotic Mission Operator Workshops | LWS Support | Exo-CCMC | DREAM2 Support | HELCATS Support
iSWA | DONKI | Kameleon | StereoCat | EEGGL | CME Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | FLR Scoreboard | SEA5

SEP Validation Team

Team Leads: K. Whitman, P. Quinn, H. Bain, I.G. Richardson, M.L. Mays
Scoreboard Leads: M. Dierckxsens, M.L. Mays

Communications: (mailing list); slack: (email leads to join our slack discussion channels)
See the ISWAT team page for an up to date list of participants.

Latest News
➡ COSPAR ISWAT: This team is now also a COSPAR ISWAT Team:
➡ Current SHINE 2020-2021 and ESWW SEP Modeling Challenge: the team is soliciting model outputs, see the challenge website for more details
➡ SHINE 2019 SEP Modeling Challenge (Research to Operations): session summary and analysis of submitted results
➡ SHINE and ESWW 2018 community campaign: session presentations and summary
➡ April 2017 working meeting: team agenda | solar/heliosphere agenda | full agenda

User Needs
What are the requirements of different users, e.g. satellite operators, aviation and ground-based services?
  ⊕  What can or should be forecast? Current models mostly focus on predicting the GOES >10 MeV proton flux but certain users may be interested in higher energies or heavier ions.
  ⊕  Probabilistic forecasts for 24 hour intervals 1-3 days ahead.
  ⊕  Estimation of SEP effects in retrospective sense are needed for aviation.
  ⊕  Models that are advanced enough for actionable forecasts.

Working Team Goals
  ⊕  Evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict historical SEP events throughout the heliosphere.
  ⊕  Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
  ⊕  Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against
  ⊕  Complementary to the SEP Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time SEP predictions and ultimately facilitate validation.

Potential Questions to Address
Where do we stand with SEP prediction?
  ⊕  Using case studies of selected events, can we assess where we stand with SEP prediction?
  ⊕  How well can the success of SEP models be compared? Is it possible to identify a uniform metric?
  ⊕  How do we move beyond using case studies for model/data comparisons?

List of Time Intervals in this Study — under discussion
🚧 under construction
  ⊕  Proposed: October 2011 – June 2012
  ⊕  Consider a training set, validation set, and test set. The test set would not be revealed until a later stage and model parameter tweaking would not be allowed.
  ⊕  Time period should have some overlap with Radiation & Plasma Effets working teams: SEEs, Total Dose, Radiation effects for aviation.
  ⊕  Time period should include STEREO (to have good CME and SEP observations).
  ⊕  Initially Focus on SEP events at Earth, later expand to multi-spacecraft even periods
  ⊕  Have a mix of events: ones that cross certain thresholds, and ones that do not.
  ⊕  What energy range should be used to select events?

Resources, Presentations, and Past Progress
  ⊕  SEP Models in the Community and Literature (compiled by Mike Marsh)
  ⊕  SHINE and ESWW 2018 community campaign: session presentations and summary
  ⊕  April 2017 working meeting: team agenda | solar/heliosphere agenda | full agenda
  ⊕  Scoreboard discussion at ESWW13 in November 2016
  ⊕  SEP Scoreboard

<< Return to the forum homepage

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

| | Privacy, Security Notices | CCMC DATA Collection Consent Agreement

CCMC logo designed by artist Nana Bagdavadze