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SEP Validation Team

Team Leads: K. Whitman, P. Quinn, H. Bain, I.G. Richardson, M.L. Mays
Scoreboard Leads: M. Dierckxsens, M.L. Mays

Communications: ccmc-sep-team@googlegroups.com (mailing list); slack: ccmc-collab.slack.com (email leads to join our slack discussion channels)
See the ISWAT team page for an up to date list of participants.

Latest News
➡ COSPAR ISWAT: This team is now also a COSPAR ISWAT Team: https://www.iswat-cospar.org/h3-01
➡ Current SHINE 2020-2021 and ESWW SEP Modeling Challenge: the team is soliciting model outputs, see the challenge website for more details
➡ SHINE 2019 SEP Modeling Challenge (Research to Operations): session summary and analysis of submitted results
➡ SHINE and ESWW 2018 community campaign: session presentations and summary
➡ April 2017 working meeting: team agenda | solar/heliosphere agenda | full agenda


User Needs
What are the requirements of different users, e.g. satellite operators, aviation and ground-based services?
  ⊕  What can or should be forecast? Current models mostly focus on predicting the GOES >10 MeV proton flux but certain users may be interested in higher energies or heavier ions.
  ⊕  Probabilistic forecasts for 24 hour intervals 1-3 days ahead.
  ⊕  Estimation of SEP effects in retrospective sense are needed for aviation.
  ⊕  Models that are advanced enough for actionable forecasts.


Working Team Goals
  ⊕  Evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict historical SEP events throughout the heliosphere.
  ⊕  Establish metrics agreed upon by the community
  ⊕  Provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against
  ⊕  Complementary to the SEP Scoreboard activity whose goal is collect and display real-time SEP predictions and ultimately facilitate validation.


Potential Questions to Address
Where do we stand with SEP prediction?
  ⊕  Using case studies of selected events, can we assess where we stand with SEP prediction?
  ⊕  How well can the success of SEP models be compared? Is it possible to identify a uniform metric?
  ⊕  How do we move beyond using case studies for model/data comparisons?


List of Time Intervals in this Study — under discussion
🚧 under construction
  ⊕  Proposed: October 2011 – June 2012
Considerations:
  ⊕  Consider a training set, validation set, and test set. The test set would not be revealed until a later stage and model parameter tweaking would not be allowed.
  ⊕  Time period should have some overlap with Radiation & Plasma Effets working teams: SEEs, Total Dose, Radiation effects for aviation.
  ⊕  Time period should include STEREO (to have good CME and SEP observations).
  ⊕  Initially Focus on SEP events at Earth, later expand to multi-spacecraft even periods
  ⊕  Have a mix of events: ones that cross certain thresholds, and ones that do not.
  ⊕  What energy range should be used to select events?


Resources, Presentations, and Past Progress
  ⊕  SEP Models in the Community and Literature (compiled by Mike Marsh)
  ⊕  SHINE and ESWW 2018 community campaign: session presentations and summary
  ⊕  April 2017 working meeting: team agenda | solar/heliosphere agenda | full agenda
  ⊕  Scoreboard discussion at ESWW13 in November 2016
  ⊕  SEP Scoreboard

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