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Geomagnetic Indices

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Geomagnetic Indices Working Team

Kp, Regional-K, Dst, Ap, ...

Team Lead: M. Liemohn (U. of Michigan) (email team lead to be added to the team)
Draft list of initial participants: L. Rastaetter (CCMC), A. Glocer (NASA/GSFC), D. Welling (U. of Michigan), Consuelo Cid (U. of Alcala), R. Boynton (U. of Sheffield), L. Rosenqvist (Swedish Institute of Space Physics), P. Wintoft (Swedish Institute of Space Physics), H. Singer (NOAA/SWPC), C. Balch (NOAA/SWPC), K. Tobiska (SET), S. Vennerstrom (DTU)
Communications: ccmc-geomag-indices@googlegroups.com (mailing list)

Introduction

We are coming into this topic with a long history of model predictions of geomagnetic indices. One of the latest is the Rastaetter et al. (2014) paper on the Dst index challenge (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/swe.20036/full), but there are many others. That is, we are not starting from zero on this topic. In fact, here are some preliminary answers:


User Needs

People use indices to interpret the global intensity of space weather activity. In addition, many geospace models use these indices as input. Prediction of these indices is useful.

Predictions of geomagnetic indices must come with errors that can be fed into a modeling ensemble to arrive at a level of uncertainty from the specification of these indices.


Working Team Goals

The unresolved issues are in the details and our goal for the week is to agree on them. Here are some thoughts:

  1. Which indices will we focus on (Dst/SYMH, Kp, AE, AL, PC, etc),
  2. which error analysis will we focus on (RMSE, correlation coefficient, or some other error value),
  3. if a contingency table ("yes/no" 2x2 chart of storm event prediction), then what time interval/cadence and what threshold for an “event”, and
  4. what intervals/events to consider the “baseline” for benchmarking performance.


Working Team Deliverables

A framework for assessing a new geomagnetic index prediction model.

Predicted indices with error bars for different lead time of predictions. Errors or uncertainties can be very big for long lead times.
Ionosphere teams will transfer uncertainities in indices (used as input) into uncertainties in outputs (neutral density, TEC, etc).

Parameters and Metrics for Model Validation

Dst and Kp are the most likely targets for our time, but AE, AL, and others could/should be discussed. I am hoping that the framework is generic enough to be applied to any index.

Preliminary Event List

Should this working team focus less on individual storm events, but rather on long intervals of 6 months or more?

Parameters and Metrics for Model Validation

Preliminary Event List

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