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CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

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User Needs

🚧 under construction
  ✳  All of types of CMEs should be taken into account since forecasters deal with all types. We will keep track of different CME types and validation can be performed for different subsets.
  ✳  Modelers, researchers, and users each have different needs. Skill scores will be computed that serve all of their needs. Skill scores useful for users will be clearly described in an easy to understand context.
  ✳  We will compute contigency table skill scores using different hit definition intervals 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 hours, as different users have different needs.
  ✳  Users would appeciate a confidence interval along with the predicted arrival times. For models that produce a confidence interval, skills scores will also be computed using this interval.
  ✳  Users would appreciate a system that keeps track of CME misses (ICME observed but not predicted), this could be added to the CME scoreboard in some manner. An option of submitted a prediction of "no arrival" into the CME scoreboard is also desired.
  ✳  Users are interested in arrival time but also impact strength and duration (in that order).


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