International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment

Forum Home | Working Teams & Topics |  Overall Goals and Deliverables  | Sign Up | FAQ |  ICCMC-LWS Working Meeting & Presentations 
CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

Related Links | Frequently Asked Questions | Community Feedback | Downloads | Sitemap
CCMC Home | CCMC Stakeholders | Our Team | Publications | Meetings and Workshops | Concept of Operations
Models At A Glance | ModelWeb Catalog and Archive
Request Procedures | Generate Input Data Files & Parameters | Movies on Request | About the Run Process | Publications Policy
Search run database | Request run output | Special events | Kameleon Software | Space Weather Explorer | Publications policy
Instant Model Run
Forecasting Support tools | iSWA | DONKI | Mission Support | Experimental Real Time Simulations | Operational Geospace Model Validations
Intl Forum | GEM Challenge | CEDAR ETI Challenge | GEM-CEDAR Challenge | SHINE Challenge | CME Arrival Time Scoreboard | Flare Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | IMF Bz Scoreboard
Educational materials &activities | Space Weather REDI Initiative | SW REDI Bootcamp | Student Research Contest | Tutorial at CEDAR | Forecaster Tools
Missions near Earth/in Earth-orbit | MMS | Van Allen Probes | THEMIS | MESSENGER | STEREO | Spitzer | MAVEN | MSL | Dawn | Kepler | EPOXI | Juno | CASSINI | Voyager | New Horizons | Sounding Rockets | International
Research Community Support | CCMC Workshops | NASA Robotic Mission Operator Workshops | LWS Support | Exo-CCMC | DREAM2 Support | HELCATS Support
iSWA | DONKI | Kameleon | StereoCat | EEGGL | CME Scoreboard | SEP Scoreboard | FLR Scoreboard | SEA5

Physical Quantities and Metrics for Model Validation


Quantities: ICME...
  ✳  arrival time (RMSE, Mean absolute error, Mean error)
  ✳  max magnetic field magnitude, speed, density, temperature (correlation coeffecient)
  ✳  duration
  ✳  resulting geomagnetic storm strengh (Kp, Dst, ...)

Metrics:
  ✳  Categorical (yes/no) predictions:
      ☼  skill scores based on contingency tables (Hit rate (POD), False alarm rate, False alarm ratio, Bias, Accuracy, Threat Score, Base Rate, Proportion Correct, HK, and HSS). Compute all scores and arrival time errors using different hit definition intervals 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 hours.
      ☼  probabilistic and continuous predictions can be converted to categorial using threshold
  ✳  Probabilistic predictions:
      ☼  Reliability diagram, Brier Skill Score, ...

See related discussion items on the Ongoing Discussion Items page


<< Return to the CME working team page
<< Return to the forum homepage

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Air Force Materiel Command Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Weather Agency NOAA Space Environment Center National Science Foundation Office of Naval Research

| | Privacy, Security Notices | CCMC DATA Collection Consent Agreement

CCMC logo designed by artist Nana Bagdavadze