Physical Quantities and Metrics for Model Validation

Quantities: ICME...
  ✳  arrival time (RMSE, Mean absolute error, Mean error)
  ✳  max magnetic field magnitude, speed, density, temperature (correlation coeffecient)
  ✳  duration
  ✳  resulting geomagnetic storm strengh (Kp, Dst, ...)

Metrics:
  ✳  Categorical (yes/no) predictions:
      ☼  skill scores based on contingency tables (Hit rate (POD), False alarm rate, False alarm ratio, Bias, Accuracy, Threat Score, Base Rate, Proportion Correct, HK, and HSS). Compute all scores and arrival time errors using different hit definition intervals 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 hours.
      ☼  probabilistic and continuous predictions can be converted to categorial using threshold
  ✳  Probabilistic predictions:
      ☼  Reliability diagram, Brier Skill Score, ...

See related discussion items on the Ongoing Discussion Items page

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