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CME Arrival Time and Impact: Events

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CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team: SARM results for set 1

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2010-04-03 17:16
Time at C2: 2010-04-03 09:54
Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 549.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2010-04-06 04:23

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2013-03-15 09:03
 Time at C2: 2013-03-15 06:54
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 869.46 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2013-03-17 04:05

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2015-03-15 04:40
 Time at C2: 2015-03-15 02:00
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C9.1 (S22W29). Peak at 2015-03-15 01:15
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 585.32 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2015-03-17 12:38

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2014-01-07 19:48
Time at C2: 2014-01-07 18:24
Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 1082.58 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2014-01-09 7:40

Taking into account the DONKI's IP shock arrival times, the prediction errors were:
CME1: Observed shock arrival time at 2010-04-05T07:54Z (a). Prediction error: 20 h 29 min
CME2: Observed shock arrival time at 2013-03-17T05:59Z (a). Prediction error: -1 h 54 min
CME3: Observed shock arrival time at 2015-03-17T04:05Z (a). Prediction Error: 8 h 33 min
CME4: Observed shock arrival time at 2014-01-09T19:32Z (b). Prediction Error: -11 h 52 min

About these results
SARM makes predictions of shock speeds and arrival times. It is a drag-based model described by a 1D differential equation that was calibrated with a dataset of shocks from 1997 to 2016 observed from 0.72 to 8.7 AU. The most recent calibration using the NASA/GSFC's DONKI database yields a POD of 63%, a FAR of 43% and a mean absolute error of arrival time predictions of 11 h 48 min for the period 2010-2016.

Recently, SARM was set up as a real-time application whose predictions are triggered by CME observations at 21.5 Rs from DONKI. For each CME, SARM automatically checks if there is an associated flare, in which case it also uses flare data (from NOAA/SWPC database) to refine its forecasts. Predictions may be 'no shock' depending on the triggering criteria described in the aforementioned paper, as well as new criteria found from recent data.

The real-time SARM module has a front-end form (http://spaceweather.uma.es/shock/predictions) that allows interested users to run this model with historical data for specific dates. The SARM results are shown below:

The paper on the SARM model is: Núñez, M., T. Nieves-Chinchilla, and A. Pulkkinen (2016), Prediction of Shock Arrival Times from CME and Flare Data, /Space Weather/, 14, 2016, doi: 10.1002/2016SW001361


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