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CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team

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Ongoing Discussion Items

➡ We invite you to voice your opinion on the preliminary decisions that we have made during the April 2017 meeting by filling in this questionnaire (a few minutes of your time).

A draft list of potential discussion items. The team will keep adding items and sort them by priority.

  ✳  Do we want to fix the CME input parameters and input magnetograms (if applicable) for all models? If so, is the team comfortable using CME parameters from a catalog to remove bias? Modelers may also submit another set of results with their best performing CME parameters in addition to the fixed ones.
  ✳  See event selection discussion items.
  ✳  How do interacting or multiple CME events impact the chosen metrics?
  ✳  Do we consider multi-spacecraft event validation?
  ✳  What is a good baseline model or climatology to compare against?
  ✳  What are the effects of the model inputs on the CME arrival time and impacts (model parameters, CME parameters, input magnetograms, etc).
  ✳  For the hit calculation:
      ☼ How to define a categorical yes/no for "model predicted arrival" - human analysis of model results or algorithm? What analysis method?
  ✳  How to quanitify uncertainty in the skill score results based on validation sample size, uncertainties in observations, and from any other sources.
  ✳  Consider extracting an "impact parameter" from model results and validating this.
  ✳  Over what interval should average or max in-situ plasma observations be derived?
  ✳  How can we validate and quanitify the effect of the background solar wind prediction on the arrival time prediction?
  ✳  Event selection: Should we have a "training set", "validation set", and "test set" — where the "test" set is not revealed until a later stage?
  ✳  What are the best ways to determine the uncertainty/confidence of the arrival time prediction?


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