Ongoing Discussion Items
➡ We invite you to voice your opinion on the preliminary decisions that we have made during the April 2017 meeting by filling in this questionnaire (a few minutes of your time).
A draft list of potential discussion items. The team will keep adding items and sort them by priority.
✳ Do we want to fix the CME input parameters and input magnetograms (if applicable) for all models? If so, is the team comfortable using CME parameters from a catalog to remove bias? Modelers may also submit another set of results with their best performing CME parameters in addition to the fixed ones.
✳ See event selection discussion items.
✳ How do interacting or multiple CME events impact the chosen metrics?
✳ Do we consider multi-spacecraft event validation?
✳ What is a good baseline model or climatology to compare against?
✳ What are the effects of the model inputs on the CME arrival time and impacts (model parameters, CME parameters, input magnetograms, etc).
✳ For the hit calculation:
☼ How to define a categorical yes/no for "model predicted arrival" - human analysis of model results or algorithm? What analysis method?
✳ How to quanitify uncertainty in the skill score results based on validation sample size, uncertainties in observations, and from any other sources.
✳ Consider extracting an "impact parameter" from model results and validating this.
✳ Over what interval should average or max in-situ plasma observations be derived?
✳ How can we validate and quanitify the effect of the background solar wind prediction on the arrival time prediction?
✳ Event selection: Should we have a "training set", "validation set", and "test set" — where the "test" set is not revealed until a later stage?
✳ What are the best ways to determine the uncertainty/confidence of the arrival time prediction?
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