Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU 
based on heliospheric MHD simulations.
Produced by the Community Coordinated 
Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC
for the Air Force Weather Agency.
For more information please contact:
Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov
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Estimate issued on  2020/09/24,  14:39:50  EST
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Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2012-05-15T08:21Z
(confidence level +-7 hours)

Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 36.3
(confidence level +-8 hours)

Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.9
 (under quiet conditions:  Rmin(Re)=10;
 R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6)

Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles
(angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp):
(Kp)_90=2
(Kp)_135=4
(Kp)_180=4