Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU 
based on heliospheric MHD simulations.
Produced by the Community Coordinated 
Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC
for the Air Force Weather Agency.
For more information please contact:
Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov
******************************************************
Estimate issued on  2012/09/21,  11:51:23  EST
******************************************************

Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2010-09-15T04:16Z
(confidence level +-7 hours)

Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 11.3
(confidence level +-8 hours)

Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.7
 (under quiet conditions:  Rmin(Re)=10;
 R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6)

Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles
(angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp):
(Kp)_90=1
(Kp)_135=2
(Kp)_180=2