Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2012/10/02, 20:42:39 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2012-08-17T14:48Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 14.7 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.2 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=2 (Kp)_135=2 (Kp)_180=3